Reading Saitama Public High School Demand RatiosOverview, Top Schools, and What Comes Next

Reading Saitama Public High School Demand Ratios—Overview, Top Schools, and What Comes Next

The Saitama Prefectural Board of Education released its preference survey for the 2026 public high school admissions cycle (published January 8, 2026). The figures reflect student preferences as of December 15 and are calculated before applications open, so they are different from the application ratio or the test-taking ratio.

💡 The preference ratio is a map of current demand, not a direct probability of admission.

This guide explains what the overall 1.07 ratio means, how demand differs by track, which schools rank highest, how to read year-on-year changes, and where the ratios are likely to move next.

• The definition of the preference ratio and how to use it
• What the overall 1.07 ratio actually contains
• Differences between general, specialized, and comprehensive tracks
• Patterns behind high-ratio schools
• The moments in the timeline when ratios shift

What you will learn

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1. What the data covers and when it was measured

These numbers are based on preferences as of December 15. The survey covers students graduating in March 2026 and collects responses from 439 junior high schools, 4 compulsory education schools, and 41 special needs junior high divisions across the prefecture.

• It is measured before applications, so it is not the same as the application or test-taking ratios
• Ratios will move as students finalize decisions
• Treat the ratio as a directional indicator of demand, not a fixed outcome

Three key points

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2. What the overall 1.07 ratio actually means

For full-time public high schools, 37,104 students expressed interest. After subtracting 237 internal-advancement students, 36,867 preferences are compared against 34,600 available seats (after excluding transfer slots and internal-advancement quotas). The result is 1.07, down 0.05 points from last year.

That implies a net excess of 2,267 preferences. But the reality is not a uniform shortage. It is a distribution mismatch.

• Tracks above 1.00: 95
• Tracks below 1.00: 139
• Exactly 1.00: 7

The excess is 5,743 students, while the shortfall is 3,476. The gap between them produces the overall 2,267. Demand concentrates in some tracks while other tracks are under-subscribed.

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3. Track structure: general stays strong, specialized and comprehensive are thinner

The breakdown by track is clear.

• General track: 25,514 seats / 28,980 preferences → 1.14 (last year 1.21)
• Specialized track: 7,382 seats / 6,402 preferences → 0.87 (last year 0.90)
• Comprehensive track: 1,704 seats / 1,485 preferences → 0.87 (last year 0.86)

General-track demand remains stronger overall, while specialized and comprehensive tracks are lower on average. Within the specialized category, however, certain fields such as arts, science, and culinary programs are clearly popular, showing polarization.

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4. Distribution: the weight of low ratios matters

Looking at the distribution gives a more realistic picture.

• Below 0.5: 25 tracks
• 0.5–0.8: 62 tracks
• 0.8–1.0: 52 tracks
• 1.0–1.2: 50 tracks
• 1.2–1.5: 35 tracks
• 1.5–2.0: 14 tracks
• 2.0 and above: 3 tracks

High-ratio schools draw attention, but 87 tracks are below 0.8. Understanding the overall landscape requires seeing both the high-demand peaks and the low-demand base.

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5. Top 30 ranking by preference ratio

Below are the top 30 school-track combinations among full-time public schools. The figures are as of December 15, and the change column shows the difference from the same time last year.

Note: The "○" symbol indicates municipal schools.

The top three positions are all municipal schools. City schools often show strong demand because of population density, academic reputation, and internal-advancement structures. In specialized tracks, programs such as fine arts, science, and culinary arts stand out even when the category average is lower.

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6. Top 10: general track and specialized/comprehensive tracks

Top 10 general-track ratios

Top 10 specialized/comprehensive-track ratios

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7. School Selection Problem schools and how to read them

For the 2026 admissions cycle, 22 schools use the School Selection Problem for math and English. The exams are harder than the common test and are designed to differentiate higher-achieving applicants.

But the system alone does not determine the ratio. Some School Selection Problem schools are highly competitive, while others are below 1.0. The surrounding market—population density, private-school options, and the density of comparable schools—matters more than the test type alone.

• School Selection Problem does not automatically mean a high ratio
• Relative position among similar-level schools is crucial
• The local market structure drives the ratio

Key takeaway

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8. Year-on-year changes: how to read the shifts

The overall ratio fell from 1.12 to 1.07, and the general track total also declined. That suggests the competition for full-time public schools has eased slightly.

However, the year-on-year change is affected by capacity adjustments as well as demand. If seats decrease by 40, the ratio rises even with the same preference count. Always separate the numerator (preferences) from the denominator (seats).

Top 10 increases

Top 10 decreases

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9. A 20-year view of change

The number of students graduating from junior high schools decreased from 66,070 in 2006 to 62,210 in 2025. At the same time, the high school advancement rate rose from the 97 percent range to the 98 percent range.

The biggest shift is in correspondence (online) high schools. The preference share rose from about 0.8 percent in 2006 to about 6.6 percent in 2025, and the number of students is roughly 7.4 times higher. Full-time demand has declined, reflecting diversification of post-junior-high pathways.

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10. Timeline: when the ratio moves

Key dates for the 2026 admissions cycle are as follows.

• Application entry: Jan 27 to Feb 10
• Document submission: Feb 13, 16, 17
• Preference change window: Feb 18 and 19
• Academic test: Feb 26
• Skills tests and interviews: Feb 27
• Make-up test: Mar 3
• Results announcement: Mar 6

The ratio shifts most around the application disclosure and the preference change window. Preference ratios are an early signal; popular schools tend to remain high even after adjustments.

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11. Practical tips for reading ratios correctly

(1) Watch numerator and denominator together A ratio of 2.0 means very different competition when the capacity is 40 compared with 320.

(2) Check seat changes before interpreting year-on-year shifts If seats are reduced, ratios rise even without demand growth.

(3) Do not use ratios as the only decision tool Ratios reflect crowding, but outcomes depend on the academic distribution and admission rules.

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Conclusion

The overall ratio of 1.07 looks calm on the surface, but the real story is a mismatch in distribution: concentrated demand for certain tracks and under-subscription in others. General-track concentration continues, while specialized and comprehensive tracks are increasingly polarized.

🎯 The preference ratio is a map. The next major movements come with applications and preference changes. Breaking the numbers down is what improves decision quality.

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Source: Saitama Prefectural Board of Education, "High School Preference Survey for the 2026 Admissions Cycle" (published January 8, 2026)