Sanae Takaichi Elected LDP PresidentJapan's First Female Prime Minister

Sanae Takaichi Elected LDP President — Japan's First Female Prime Minister

On October 4, 2025, Sanae Takaichi delivered a victory speech at LDP headquarters. In the LDP presidential election runoff, Sanae Takaichi (64) defeated her rival Shinjiro Koizumi (44) by 185 votes to 156, becoming the 27th LDP president.

This makes Takaichi poised to become Japan's first female prime minister, marking a historic turning point for the "male leadership" system that has persisted since the LDP's founding in 1955. Five candidates ran in the election, and since no candidate secured a majority in the first round, a runoff was held between the top two candidates.

While Takaichi led in local party member votes and Koizumi had an advantage in parliamentary votes, Takaichi ultimately won in the runoff vote among party parliamentarians and prefectural federation representatives. This marks the first time a woman has won the LDP presidential election, an event that has drawn international attention as breaking through the glass ceiling in Japanese politics.

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Why Sanae Takaichi Now? — Background and Factional Dynamics

The background to Takaichi's selection as party leader at this moment involves significant changes in both internal LDP dynamics and public opinion trends.

Previous Administration's Support Collapse and Consecutive Defeats

First, former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida saw his approval ratings plummet to historically low levels in 2024 (19.4% in Jiji Press surveys, 28% in Nikkei surveys), leading to his resignation amid party-wide financial scandals.

By the end of the Kishida administration, public distrust had grown due to rising prices and the Unification Church controversy, and Kishida announced his resignation, stating he would "step aside for party renewal."

His successor, then-Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, was expected as a clean reformer, but the LDP-Komeito coalition suffered a crushing defeat in the October 2024 House of Representatives election, losing their majority for the first time in 15 years.

💡 The Reality of Defeat by Numbers: The LDP won only 191 out of 465 lower house seats, a significant drop from 247 seats before dissolution, while Komeito also fell to 24 seats (previously 32), resulting in a coalition total of 215 seats—18 short of the 233 needed for a majority.

The subsequent July 2025 House of Councillors election also saw the ruling parties fail to secure a majority of contested seats (winning only 47 out of 124 contested seats), creating an unprecedented situation where the ruling parties lost their majority in both houses.

This series of "two consecutive defeats" led Ishiba to announce his resignation less than a year after taking office, forcing the LDP to select a new leader.

Intraparty Factional Dynamics

Intraparty factional dynamics were also crucial to Takaichi's selection. Takaichi is seen as a close ally and successor to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a conservative hardliner, who gathered support from right-wing forces including Abe's largest faction (Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai, commonly known as the "Abe faction").

Meanwhile, her rival Shinjiro Koizumi gained support from some lawmakers and non-factional members as a young reformer, but his intraparty foundation was considered weaker than Takaichi's.

Indeed, in party member and supporter votes, Takaichi led with 39.1% (Koizumi 24.6%, Yoshimasa Hayashi 21.8%), and public opinion polls also showed Takaichi as the most favored candidate for the next president.

With conservative forces rallying around the Abe faction, Takaichi expanded her lead in local votes nationwide despite being at a disadvantage in parliamentary votes, advancing to the runoff.

Additionally, the proliferation of liberal candidates (such as Hayashi and Toshimitsu Motegi) and rising young politicians (like Takayuki Kobayashi) who gained prominence under both Kishida and Ishiba administrations led to vote splitting, which worked to Takaichi's advantage.

Changes in Public Opinion and Conservative Vote Shifts

Public opinion movements are also a crucial point. Trust in the long-ruling LDP had fallen to postwar lows due to successive scandals, and there was growing momentum among voters to "give the ruling party a lesson."

Indeed, in the 2024 general election, the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, surged to 148 seats (up from 98), achieving what the opposition side evaluated as their goal of "denying the ruling parties a majority."

Additionally, some conservative votes flowed to new parties further to the right than the LDP. For example, the anti-immigration, patriotic Sanseitō party increased from 1 existing seat to 15 seats in the 2025 upper house election, expanding support with radical slogans like "Japan First" and "Foreigners' Silent Invasion."

These movements heightened crisis awareness within the LDP, with voices rising that "a leader with stronger hawkish characteristics is needed to prevent conservative defections."

As a symbol of Abe's posthumous legacy and party reunification, Takaichi became the perfect standard-bearer. Indeed, voices from the party's right wing emerged saying "only Takaichi can save the party from crisis," and for conservative hardliners who had been sidelined under the Ishiba administration, Takaichi's candidacy was a long-held aspiration.

🎯 Summary: Three factors converged to form the answer to "why Sanae Takaichi now": the party's turmoil from the previous administration's support collapse and electoral defeats, the conservative counterattack centered on the Abe faction, and voter changes (opposition surge and new right-wing rise).

Takaichi herself, this being her third presidential election attempt (losing in 2021 and 2024), won the leadership position through persistence and accumulated experience.

Behind this lies the long-held desire of conservatives to implement constitutional revision and hardline security policies. Whether the "Takaichi administration" can achieve party revival and trust restoration represents a gamble on the LDP's fate.

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The Birth of the First Female President — Its Significance and Public Reaction

What makes Takaichi's presidency groundbreaking is, above all, that she is the first female leader in LDP history and poised to become Japan's first female prime minister.

Japan has been the only major advanced country without a female prime minister, ranking 118th out of 148 countries in the World Economic Forum's Gender Gap Index and last among G7 nations.

Therefore, the news that "a woman will occupy the top government position that men have monopolized for nearly 70 years" has been widely reported domestically and internationally, with some evaluating it as "breaking through the glass ceiling."

Takaichi herself has long aimed to become "Japan's Thatcher," recounting her 2013 meeting with her idol, former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, and consciously modeling herself as a female leader.

In her post-election speech, she expressed determination, saying "rather than joy, I feel tension. The real work begins now," showing her resolve to make history as Japan's first female prime minister.

Conservative Female Leader — Skepticism About Gender Policies

However, there are also many voices that cannot simply welcome Takaichi's emergence as unqualified "women's progress." This is because Takaichi's own policy stance is strongly traditional conservative, with distance from gender equality promotion.

For example, she opposes introducing optional separate surnames for married couples and takes a negative stance on legalizing same-sex marriage. On the imperial succession issue, she also opposes female and matrilineal emperors, showing a stance that defends so-called patriarchal values.

In fact, while Takaichi models herself after Thatcher, known as the "Iron Lady," she has never identified herself as a feminist, and in the presidential election debates, she barely mentioned gender equality or women's social advancement.

Professor Yayo Okano of Doshisha University severely criticized this, stating, "Takaichi has not touched on women's difficulties or gender gaps at all. Her victory shows the harsh reality that no improvement in Japan's gender equality can be expected."

In reality, under the new Takaichi presidency, women's political participation and treatment will not dramatically improve immediately, and there are many cool-headed views that "while the symbolic significance is great, substantive change is limited."

Divided Public Opinion

Public opinion is also divided on Takaichi.

• Celebration and expectations for "Japan's first female prime minister"
• Social media hashtags like "#SanaeTakaichi" and "#GlassCeiling" trending
• Conservative female supporters expressing joy that "women can also become such strong leaders"
• Takaichi herself commenting that she hopes "more female politicians will follow"

Supporters' Views:

• Liberals and younger generations questioning whether "the facade has changed to a woman but the content remains old"
• In one survey, 23.3% cited Takaichi as the "least suitable candidate for the next president" (second worst after Koizumi's 38.9%)
• Criticisms such as "strong communication skills but extreme right-wing policies are concerning" and "risks reversing women's rights advancement"

Skeptics' Views:

In fact, opinion polls indicate gender differences in support for Takaichi. While male support is relatively high due to her conservative positions, female support is lukewarm, and many women cannot identify with Takaichi's values.

For example, while nearly 80% of the public accepts separate surnames in opinion polls, Takaichi continues to oppose it, highlighting this gap.

Commitment to Women's Advancement and Unique Background

That said, Takaichi does not completely disregard women's advancement. After assuming the presidency, she publicly stated that she would "increase the number of female cabinet members and party officials," and there is talk of appointing multiple female ministers, which would be a record high.

Additionally, Takaichi's unusual career background (working at a private broadcasting station, playing drums in a heavy metal band during university, and being a motorcycle enthusiast) stands out in the LDP, which has many hereditary male lawmakers.

Online, trivia like "Takaichi is a motorcycle-riding rocker politician" spread, with voices saying "her unconventional background is actually interesting." This gap between her individuality and conservative ideology also contributes to the mixed attention Takaichi receives domestically.

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Relations with U.S. Politics and Trump — Compatibility and Diplomatic Outlook

A major focus of the Takaichi administration's launch is relations with ally America.

Resonance of "Japan First" and "America First"

Particularly with Donald Trump's return to U.S. politics in 2025 (winning the 2024 presidential election and returning to office), the "compatibility" between the two nations' leaders and similarities and differences in diplomatic policies have attracted attention.

Before assuming the premiership, Takaichi stated, "I am confident I can build a very good personal relationship with Mr. Trump," explaining that "I advocate 'Japan First' policies, which share commonalities with Trump's 'America First' approach".

Indeed, Takaichi is known as a U.S. expert with work experience in Washington, and as a self-proclaimed nationalist, she aligns with Trump in prioritizing "national interests first."

Given this ideological resonance, some view the two personalities as relatively compatible. In fact, Takaichi once trained through the Congressional Fellowship Program and is fluent in English, leading to expectations within the ruling party that "she can speak more candidly with Trump than Suga or Kishida could."

Potential Friction in Trade and Economics

However, whether a Takaichi-Trump honeymoon will directly translate into diplomatic results remains unclear. Economic and trade interests may clash.

During his first administration, Trump advocated correcting the U.S.-Japan trade deficit, pressuring Japan to open agricultural markets and raising automotive tariffs in "deal-focused diplomacy."

Japanese government officials recall being overwhelmed by Trump's transactional supremacy, surprised by his "attitude of demanding concessions even from ally Japan without mercy."

The Ishiba administration also struggled with U.S. negotiations, and in September this year, Japan promised a total of $550 billion (approximately ¥82 trillion) in U.S. investment over the next five years in exchange for the U.S. reducing automotive tariffs.

However, Takaichi has even suggested renegotiating this agreement, stating, "If there are elements that harm Japan's national interests, renegotiation is possible."

She is prepared to engage in tough negotiations to protect Japan's agriculture and automotive industries while monitoring the benefits and side effects of Trump-style economic policies like tax cuts for the wealthy and FTA revisions. This represents Takaichi's stance of dealing with Trump, a businessman obsessed with deals, on equal footing as an experienced politician.

Coordination and Concerns in Security Affairs

In security matters, Takaichi and Trump share many commonalities. Both are known for their hard-line stance toward China, and they may align on issues like strengthening domestic military capabilities and demanding increased burden-sharing from allies.

Takaichi argues that "while maintaining the U.S.-Japan alliance as the foundation, Japan should also dramatically strengthen its own defense capabilities," which aligns with Trump's past statements that "Japan should defend itself more."

Additionally, Takaichi advocates strengthening solidarity among the anti-China encirclement, including Taiwan, South Korea, and the Philippines, which shares common interests with the Trump administration in terms of strengthening liberal democratic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region.

However, concerns arise regarding coordination on China policy. If the Trump administration shows unpredictable shifts in relations with China (such as prioritizing trade negotiations and easing tensions), Japan's hardline approach under Takaichi could create misalignment.

Professor Tetsuo Kotani of Meikai University warns, "If Takaichi leans too far right on China and Korea, Japan risks isolation. If Japan alone intensifies confrontation when the Trump administration retreats from Asia, it could be very troublesome," calling for realistic diplomacy.

In other words, Takaichi's diplomacy, even with U.S. honeymoon potential, carries tightrope elements that could backfire.

Risks of Tension with Neighboring Countries

International reactions will also affect future U.S.-Takaichi relations. South Korea and China are particularly on edge about Takaichi's emergence.

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung had been working to improve relations with former Prime Minister Ishiba, but there is an atmosphere of "unavoidable wariness" toward Takaichi due to her past statements on historical issues.

When Takaichi stated in a September debate that "ministers should boldly visit disputed territories like Takeshima (Dokdo)," South Korean public opinion reacted sensitively, with reports already expressing concerns about the future.

China has also strongly opposed Takaichi's history of repeated Yasukuni Shrine visits and her "quasi-alliance with Taiwan" concept, with Chinese Foreign Ministry spokespersons immediately warning to "correct wrong attitudes on historical issues" upon her assumption of office.

In response to such opposition from neighboring countries, while Takaichi states "the door to dialogue is not closed," she maintains an unyielding stance that "we will say what must be said for the sake of national dignity." She positions herself to cooperate with the Trump administration in dealing with South Korea and China if the U.S.-Japan alliance wavers.

Focus on APEC Summit Meeting

Overall, the relationship between the Takaichi and Trump administrations is likely delicate—holding potential for a honeymoon leveraging their shared "nation-first" ideology while facing challenges of interest coordination in trade and regional strategy.

An event that will set the tone is the Japan-U.S. summit meeting scheduled around the APEC Leaders' Meeting to be held in South Korea in November.

President Trump is reported to potentially make his first visit to Japan after attending APEC, which would be Prime Minister Takaichi's first face-to-face diplomacy after taking office.

How the two leaders demonstrate chemistry and what discussions they have on trade and security will undoubtedly determine not only future Japan-U.S. relations but also the fate of the Takaichi administration.

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Analysis of Sanae Takaichi's Policy Stance — From Economics to Security

Economic Policy: Bold "Takaichi-nomics"

In the economic sphere, Sanae Takaichi is known as a standout proactive fiscal policy advocate within the LDP. Calling Shinzo Abe her "mentor," she is a genuine reflationist who has strongly supported the Abe administration's economic policy "Abenomics."

Her policy platform is bold. In her presidential campaign pledge, Takaichi promised to "double nominal GDP in 10 years" and double national investment in strategic areas such as new technologies, infrastructure, and food security.

In fact, her economic policy was rated as the most expansionary among the five candidates, with fiscal hawks warning of a "large spending path that could surprise markets."

While Japan's government debt stands at over 260% of GDP, the world's worst level, Takaichi takes the position that if nominal growth increases through inflation while investment creates future growth foundations, debt will relatively shrink. This is the reflation policy thinking that "recession is more harmful than debt," following Abenomics' priority on escaping deflation.

Specific Policies:

1. Consumption Tax Reduction and Gasoline Tax Abolition
• Proposed measures to directly reduce household burdens
• In campaign period opinion polls, "consumption tax reduction" (55.1%) and "gasoline tax abolition" (43.1%) ranked high

1. Refundable Tax Credit
• A system that provides cash payments for amounts that cannot be deducted
• Shows flexibility in incorporating redistribution measures also advocated by opposition parties

1. Cautious Stance on Monetary Policy
• Cautious about BOJ's monetary tightening
• Critical of recent interest rate hikes and YCC adjustments as "premature"
• Maintains that monetary easing should continue until wage growth catches up with price increases

While other LDP candidates were relatively cautious, Takaichi clearly differentiated herself from previous administrations, prominently featuring the message "protect people's livelihoods through bold tax cuts and fiscal spending."

This path easily attracts voter support in the short term, but carries long-term fiscal risks from increased bond issuance, potentially inviting pushback from markets and the Ministry of Finance. Indeed, bond yields rose somewhat immediately after the presidential election, with markets closely watching the Takaichi administration's economic management.

Overall, Takaichi's economic policy centers on massive economic stimulus that could be called "Takaichi-nomics." At a press conference, she showed determination, stating, "To turn people's anxiety into hope, I will work, work, and work relentlessly."

While her commitment to economic recovery and inflation response appears reassuring to many citizens, its execution faces hurdles of opposition cooperation and market trust. Whether massive investment and tax cuts can succeed in bringing brightness back to the Japanese economy will first draw attention to the content of the supplementary budget scheduled for imminent compilation.

Constitutional Views and Security Policy: Right-Wing National Perspective

What stands out in Sanae Takaichi's political beliefs is her conservative nationalism-tinged constitutional and security outlook.

• A staunch constitutional revisionist who has long advocated "independent constitution" and Article 9 revision
• Explicitly stated in the presidential campaign that she would "advance constitutional revision debate to strengthen defense capabilities"
• Aims to explicitly mention the Self-Defense Forces in Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution and clarify their position as a defense force
• Also supports creation of emergency provisions and family protection clauses

Strong Drive for Constitutional Revision:

• Considers the Kishida administration's plan to raise defense spending to 2% of GDP as "merely a waypoint," suggesting further defense system strengthening
• Controversially stated that future "nuclear sharing" (deploying U.S. nuclear weapons in Japan during emergencies) should be discussed without taboo
• Positions Taiwan contingencies as Japan contingencies, planning to deepen security cooperation with Taiwan, the U.S., Australia, India, and others in peacetime
• Visited Taiwan in 2023 stating she wanted to "form a quasi-alliance among Japan, Taiwan, Europe, Australia, and India," drawing strong Chinese opposition

Ambition for Defense Capability Doubling:

• Publicly states "there is no longer a need to continue apologizing for the last war"
• A politician who has visited Yasukuni Shrine around August 15th annually
• Maintains the position that "showing reverence for war dead is natural" and "not subject to interference from other countries"
• However, during campaign debates, avoided explicit commitment to Yasukuni visits after becoming PM, only stating she would "continue to hold respect for war dead"

Historical Recognition and Yasukuni Visits:

While showing consideration not to deliberately stoke friction with neighboring countries, her historical views still carry high potential to shift from traditional apology diplomacy. Concerns are pointed out about potential rekindling of issues like forced labor and comfort women with South Korea, and rising tensions over historical cards with China.

Immigration, Security, and Social Policy

• Critical of de facto immigration policies expanding foreign worker and technical intern acceptance
• In campaign debates, stated "easy acceptance of foreigners may harm social stability" and advocated stricter immigration control
• Controversially claimed that "there are cases of foreign tourists kicking Nara's sacred deer," though local authorities denied such reports
• While liberals criticized this as "promoting prejudice," Takaichi's support base includes voices applauding "well said"

Cautious Immigration Stance:

• Cautious across the board on liberal reforms, including opposition to separate surnames and caution on LGBT legislation
• Represents conservative LDP positions, following Abe's emphasis on family values
• Such positions risk widening gaps with urban youth and liberals
• On same-sex marriage and LGBT anti-discrimination laws, international scrutiny is severe

Conservative Social Policy:

📊 Policy Positioning: Sanae Takaichi's policy positioning features bold populist stimulus in economics and hawkish nationalism in diplomacy and security. This resonates with trends like the Trump phenomenon in America and right-wing populism rise in Europe, showing Japanese politics riding the wave of the times.

While the conservative hardline path garners enthusiastic support from certain segments, it also carries high potential for domestic and international friction, making its navigation an extremely difficult challenge.

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Impact on Japan's Future — Prospects and Challenges

Under the new Takaichi presidency, Japan's domestic politics and diplomacy will enter a major transition period.

Domestic Politics: Minority Government Challenges

In domestic politics, attention is needed to the fact that policy management will occur on the unstable foundation of a "minority ruling party government." The LDP-Komeito coalition still lacks majorities in both houses, and Takaichi starts her administration with an extremely weak foundation.

While Takaichi gained prime minister designation because the opposition could not field a unified candidate, the ruling parties still have only 215 seats in the lower house, 18 short of the 233 majority.

Therefore, the Takaichi administration must rely on opposition cooperation or at least some abstentions to pass legislation and budgets. Former PM Ishiba only secured 221 votes in the post-election prime minister designation vote, leading to a runoff, and Takaichi similarly faces an unstable launch.

Consensus Building is Key:

In this situation, the key to future domestic politics is consensus formation with other parties. Takaichi called for opposition cooperation in her policy speech, stating she would "ensure political stability to respond to the people's mandate."

Cooperation possibilities are particularly discussed with the center-leaning Democratic Party for the People (DPP). DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki advocates tax cuts and subsidies for inflation response, which has high affinity with Takaichi's proactive fiscal path.

The Takaichi administration may seek agreement on major tax cuts and energy price measures. Meanwhile, major opposition parties like the Constitutional Democratic Party and Japan Innovation Party strongly oppose Takaichi's right-wing stance, making cooperation difficult particularly on constitutional revision and security policy.

Therefore, the Takaichi administration will likely initially prioritize economic and livelihood policies that opposition parties can easily support. For example, possibilities are noted for temporarily lowering consumption tax rates or freezing gasoline taxes by year-end. These are easier to pass through parliament and also represent chances for Takaichi to gain popular support.

• Unstable Government Management: Minority governments constantly face risks of no-confidence motions and bill rejections
• Party Discipline Challenges: Many lawmakers supported Koizumi or Hayashi, with some critical of new President Takaichi
• Support Rating Maintenance: The Ishiba cabinet's approval fell to the low 20% range by its end, and voters' eyes are severe
• Local Election Pressure: Losses in upcoming local elections could trigger internal party criticism

Domestic Political Risks:

Therefore, it is vital for the Takaichi administration to demonstrate results early and stabilize approval ratings.

Diplomacy: Proactive Stance and Regional Tensions

In diplomacy, Prime Minister Takaichi's emergence is expected to make Japan's external stance more clear and proactive.

• With personal affinity with President Trump, Japan-U.S. cooperation in defense is likely to deepen
• The Takaichi administration is forward-leaning on measures Japan previously hesitated on, such as defense spending increases and counter-strike capabilities
• Japan's role will likely expand in forms integrated into U.S. strategy

Strengthening Japan-U.S. Relations:

• Besides potential renegotiation of the U.S. investment agreement, the Trump administration may make additional demands
• Takaichi states she will "firmly argue against demands that harm national interests"

Potential Trade Friction:

Value-Based Diplomacy in Asia:

The Takaichi administration will likely further promote value-based diplomacy. Facing China's rise and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, solidarity with democracies (such as the Quad and Japan-U.S.-ROK cooperation) will be emphasized.

Takaichi is a liberal democratic camp solidarity advocate inherited from Abe, enthusiastic about enhancing Japan's presence in the Indo-Pacific region.

However, in the process, relations with South Korea and China may become more tense than under the previous Ishiba administration. Particularly with South Korea, just as signs of improvement were emerging, there are concerns that Takaichi's historical view statements might cool relations again.

While Takaichi herself states she wants to "cooperate with South Korea," if she makes hardline statements on historical issues sensitive to South Korean public opinion, it could return to square one.

Regarding China, the Takaichi administration is expected to intensify pressure in coordination with the U.S., such as correcting Japanese companies' China dependence and strengthening semiconductor export restrictions. China may threaten economic retaliation, potentially bringing Japan-China relations to heightened tension.

That said, Takaichi does not completely ignore realistic approaches, stating she will "continue dialogue with China" and not desiring complete collapse of economic relations. Essentially, she is considered to aim for nuanced diplomacy following the Abe administration's path of "balancing strategic China containment with economic cooperation."

Potential Political Landscape Transformation

Finally, depending on how the Takaichi administration proceeds, Japan's political landscape itself may be redrawn.

• If Takaichi achieves economic revitalization and enhanced diplomatic presence through decisive leadership, the LDP could regain public support and potentially reclaim a single-party majority in the next general election
• Popularity as Japan's first female PM could provide tailwinds

Success Scenario:

• If Takaichi's hardline approach deepens national division or economic management fails, the era of LDP long-term dominance may genuinely end
• The Constitutional Democratic Party has already grown to 148 seats, and alliances with other parties could make regime change realistic

Failure Scenario:

Voters' perspectives also focus not just on the novelty of "a female prime minister's birth" but on substantive results. While the challenges facing the Takaichi administration are mountainous, whether she can overcome them and lead Japan to a new stage—the answer depends on policy implementation and political judgments over the coming months to year.

In any case, Sanae Takaichi's emergence in October 2025 represents a major turning point in Japanese political history, with developments drawing attention not only domestically but from around the world.